The Next Bear Market

This week's blogpost - https://bahnsen.co/42ccBWB

In this week's Thoughts on Money, Trevor, Blaine, and Brett discuss Blaine's article, “The Next Bear Market,” which argues that a 20% market decline will happen at some point and that recent, fast recoveries (COVID, 2022, 2023 bank failures, and a short-lived 2025 ~19% drawdown) may be breeding investor complacency. They distinguish corrections (10%) from bear markets (20%), highlight how intra-year drawdowns often fade in annual returns, and emphasize the market’s interconnected participants, leverage-driven selling, and the expectation that the Fed will intervene. The group focuses on preparing through adequate liquidity and safety nets to avoid selling at the wrong time, understanding why you own assets, and emphasizing dividends and income as part of total return. They note risk surveys can misstate real behavior, advisors act as guides to help clients endure volatility, and premium returns require accepting volatility as the price of admission.

00:00 Podcast Intro

00:30 Why Bear Markets Happen

03:05 Drawdowns vs Annual Returns

05:02 Statement Pain Explained

07:19 Too Big to Fail Mindset

10:17 Complacency After Long Runs

18:40 Corrections vs Bear Markets

20:37 Risk Tolerance Reality Check

23:04 Long Horizon Portfolio Buckets

24:15 Focus on Dividends Not Price

25:47 Dividends And Total Return

26:22 Safety Nets And Inflation

27:31 Bear Markets And Labels

28:57 Recession Versus Bear

29:37 Markets Versus Economy

30:40 Why Cash Reserves Matter

32:51 Leverage And Forced Selling

34:24 Liquidity And Buyer Shortages

35:24 Life Transitions And Risk

37:00 Advisor Psychology And Coaching

40:38 Guides Expand Risk Tolerance

41:42 Portfolio Rules Of Thumb

43:38 Volatility Price Of Returns

45:32 Time Horizon Is The Edge

46:35 Wrap Up And Disclosures

Links mentioned in this episode:

• http://thoughtsonmoney.com
• http://thebahnsengroup.com